I note the Chinese brokered thawing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is about Sunni Arabia and Shiite Persia making a start at moving past their differences, rising above what divides them. Theirs have something to do with doctrine, with Western ideology and maneuvers contributing in major parts. Now the Chinese worked behind the scenes and came up with this shifting of political sands in the always volatile Middle East. Where America long reigned supreme, and flexed its muscles, for almost a century is now slipping away by bits and pieces. This makes Guyana’s position more interesting.
There is something called OPEC+, and the plus in that powerful cartel is the huge Russian Bear that casts long shadows. The more it is cornered, the more it bristles, paws the air, is dangerous (unpredictable). Western sanctions for its Ukrainian “special military operations”, meant cheap oil for India, and encroaching Chinese diplomacy in Ukraine. Open defiance of America is now almost the norm among nations. Still, I assert that Guyana takes on an even more pivotal role in the American schemes and visions, notwithstanding losses in influence and prestige.
For when the lifeblood of global and national economies, the oceans of quality Middle Eastern oil hitched to the output of Russia, it makes for incredible clout, reversing political fortunes, and the dominance that goes with it. America’s reach and power is waning, which can’t be denied. Further complicating the situation, the powers thirsting to replace America at the pinnacle are not its friends, or allies; or those that have sympathy for it. Truth be told, there is much blood in the eye of those going against the American grain.
I weigh these developments and recognize the positives for Guyana. This country’s oil gifts and its location place it firmly in the American firmament, within distance of its needs; feed for its military and economic beasts, if only as a guaranteed secondary presence and dependable reservoir. There is a need for an ally, as strong relationships long held in check, now go their own way (like Saudi Arabia). There is a welcome home for American business interests, with the local economy short of everything that a new oil-producing country must have to grow, and push for a better life for its people. Considering only these components of Guyana’s emerging meaning to America, in the light of Chinese advances, Indian relationships, and Middle Eastern movements, this country is well-positioned to be more than a gas station for ExxonMobil and a South American outpost for American visions. Well-positioned is a start, but it is only one aspect of where Guyana is today. It has to take advantage of what is unfolding elsewhere in the world, with an eye to what events mean for this country.
How to get more, with a helping hand from America. An America now reeling from rejections, and slowly fading from the pinnacle it has occupied with others for the last century, and alone for the last 30 years. How to squeeze Exxon for what would be fair, and make it see things our way in light of global developments? Guyana oil takes on a greater sheen and more strategic importance. As an aside, it is my belief that Exxon has not fully disclosed the extent of its explorations and the discoveries in which they have resulted.
All of the above would be possible, gain some needed muscle, but only if leaders in the PPP Government have the boldness, timing, and depth to move with skill and strength. If they did to make the best use of Guyana’s gifts, then the benefits to this country and its peoples would be inestimable. If they are untouched and untarnished, then political leaders must find a way to overcome the odds and circumstances with which this country grapples. If they are truly patriotic and clean, there would be the fearlessness and will to step forward, and work for a deal that is fair and square for Guyana. No more of this nibbling around the edges in fright before Exxon. None of this prostrating before American Ambassador Sarah Ann Lynch. Not another moment of this misleading of Guyanese with what they all interpret as the weakness of those with power in their hands.
The regrettable reality is that neither President Ali nor the Vice President have so far shown any of what is required to lift this country out of where it is fastened. What they do, rather, is to curl around crucial oil issues; crimp themselves into corners; and bow before the dictates of Exxon. The Opposition leadership, present and previous, also have to come out of their shells. Manifest more muscle. The time is ripe for Guyana to make its moves. America has less and less friends. Guyana can be a steady friend, but only when Exxon does right by Guyana. America must lend its weight to that like it has done at other times in other matters of oil in other places.
